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          2020年全球油价暴跌
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<h2 id="油价下跌直接原因"><a href="#油价下跌直接原因" class="headerlink" title="油价下跌直接原因"></a>油价下跌直接原因</h2><h3 id="1、俄罗斯拒绝签署新的减产协议"><a href="#1、俄罗斯拒绝签署新的减产协议" class="headerlink" title="1、俄罗斯拒绝签署新的减产协议"></a>1、俄罗斯拒绝签署新的减产协议</h3><p>2016年底，石油输出国组织（OPEC）和以俄罗斯为首的一些非（OPEC）国家共同签署了一个石油减产协议，为的就是通过减产来使得石油价格上升。不过这个协议今年3月底到期，（OPEC)组织提议再次签订一份减产协议，俄罗斯拒绝签订。<a id="more"></a></p>
<h3 id="2、沙特提高石油产能，并降价销售"><a href="#2、沙特提高石油产能，并降价销售" class="headerlink" title="2、沙特提高石油产能，并降价销售"></a>2、沙特提高石油产能，并降价销售</h3><p>由于俄罗斯拒绝签订协议，沙特宣布在4月份要把石油产能恢复到减产前的最高1200万桶每天，并且还要拿出一部分库存来卖；同时根据不同的地区还有不同的折扣。沙特之所以这样做，为的是保护自己的原油市场份额。</p>
<h2 id="为什么俄罗斯拒绝签订协议"><a href="#为什么俄罗斯拒绝签订协议" class="headerlink" title="为什么俄罗斯拒绝签订协议"></a>为什么俄罗斯拒绝签订协议</h2><h3 id="1、影响石油因素过于复杂"><a href="#1、影响石油因素过于复杂" class="headerlink" title="1、影响石油因素过于复杂"></a>1、影响石油因素过于复杂</h3><p>石油价格不单单是由市场供需关系决定，另一方面还会受到政治的影响，毕竟石油是一切工业的基础，是重要的战略资源。沙特打价格战，俄罗斯也不甘示弱，甚至对外说：油价在25美元到30美元之间，国家财政可以坚持6年以上。</p>
<h3 id="2、俄罗斯不愿意减产"><a href="#2、俄罗斯不愿意减产" class="headerlink" title="2、俄罗斯不愿意减产"></a>2、俄罗斯不愿意减产</h3><p>俄罗斯认为，减产就是杀鸡取卵，竭泽而渔，虽然签订的减产协议可以保证短时期内的利润，但是长期减产会导致自己的市场份额。</p>
<h3 id="3、通过价格战打击美国"><a href="#3、通过价格战打击美国" class="headerlink" title="3、通过价格战打击美国"></a>3、通过价格战打击美国</h3><p>由于美国改善了页岩油的开采技术，相比之前降低了成本，导致石油产量迅速增长。据美国能源信息署数据显示：从2014年以来，美国石油产量每年上涨34%，直到2019年，产量达到了每天1250万桶，成为世界最大的石油生产国，并不断出口石油。</p>
<h5 id="美国开采的页岩油成本偏高"><a href="#美国开采的页岩油成本偏高" class="headerlink" title="美国开采的页岩油成本偏高"></a>美国开采的页岩油成本偏高</h5><p>虽然美国的页岩油开采成本有所降低，但是相比于传统的开采方式，这个成本无疑还是更高的。据一些机构的估算，美国页岩油成本在45美元以上，而俄罗斯与沙特的成本都在20美元以下。</p>
<h5 id="对美国产生威胁"><a href="#对美国产生威胁" class="headerlink" title="对美国产生威胁"></a>对美国产生威胁</h5><p>页岩油的成本问题就会导致俄罗斯和沙特可以增加产量降价，以价格战的方式来对美国石油市场产生威胁。</p>
<h4 id="美国油气公司无法还贷"><a href="#美国油气公司无法还贷" class="headerlink" title="美国油气公司无法还贷"></a>美国油气公司无法还贷</h4><p>其实在2014年左右，俄罗斯和沙特就与美国打过一场价格战，但是美国石油公司最后是依靠相对宽松的借贷体系和国家的帮忙，赢下了这场石油战。虽然是输给美国一次，但是美国大量的石油公司是借钱发展的，终究还是要还贷的，加上石油市场的起伏变化，越来越多的公司开始无法偿还贷款了。据数据显示，2019年前3季度就有33家页岩油企业申请破产。据国际知名信贷评级公司穆雷公司统计，2020年到2023年，北美有超过2000亿的债务要还，2020年光是本金就要还450亿美元。所以石油降价对美国的油气公司产生了巨大的打击。</p>
<h3 id="2、受疫情影响，油价下跌是必然"><a href="#2、受疫情影响，油价下跌是必然" class="headerlink" title="2、受疫情影响，油价下跌是必然"></a>2、受疫情影响，油价下跌是必然</h3><p>据瑞银集团预计，受疫情影响，2020年全球石油需求将同比减少250万桶每天以上。所以油价下跌是肯定的，俄罗斯就顺势增产、降价，对美国进行打击。</p>
<h2 id="油价下跌对我们的影响"><a href="#油价下跌对我们的影响" class="headerlink" title="油价下跌对我们的影响"></a>油价下跌对我们的影响</h2><h4 id="1、加油更便宜"><a href="#1、加油更便宜" class="headerlink" title="1、加油更便宜"></a>1、加油更便宜</h4><h4 id="2、国内汽油价格不会无休止跌"><a href="#2、国内汽油价格不会无休止跌" class="headerlink" title="2、国内汽油价格不会无休止跌"></a>2、国内汽油价格不会无休止跌</h4><p>据2016年国家发改委出台修订的《石油价格管理办法》第6条规定，当国际油价低于40美元一桶时，按原油价格每桶40美元来算成品油。</p>

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